Zhou Yongsheng:ThwartedAmbition论文

Zhou Yongsheng:ThwartedAmbition论文

The author is a professor at China Foreign Affairs University

The ruling Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner the Komeito Party won 71 of the 124 seats in the House of Councilors election held on July 21, falling short of the two-thir ds majority it needed in the 245-seat upper house of the National Diet to revise the nation's constitution.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's proposal would add a clause to Article 9 of the Constitution legalizing Japan's Self-Defense Forces. Political parties in support of the revision, including the LDP, the Komeito and reformist parties, hold 160 seats, four short of the 164-seat minimum necessary to propose revisions to the constitution. That means the Abe administration will not be able to rely on its current political bloc to advance its constitutional revision.

Voter turnout dropped by 5 percent for the national election, indicating that in the current “low-desire society” in Japan, people's interest in politics is gradually declining. However, votes for the LDP did not decrease sharply and votes for Komeito actually increased, which can be viewed as voter approval for Abe's administration over the past six years. Yet voters also showed rationality and expressed reservations about the constitutional reform promoted by Abe, evidenced by his failure to win a supermajority.

在此次回顾性实验中,我们纳入了前期文献中所提及与鼻咽癌相关的18个临床风险因素。将这18个临床参数运用机器算法进行筛选,最终建立以及验证了一个新型的用于预测评估进展期鼻咽癌患者的远处转移风险的预测模型。根据该模型将进展期鼻咽癌患者分为高转移风险组与低转移风险组,在高低风险组间总生存时间存在明显差异性(P<0.001)。

Abe will continue to pursue the revision of Japan's pacifist constitution. How he will further this goal and whether he can achieve it are a matter of great concern to East Asian countries as well as the international community.

Forcing a supermajority

Japan will take the initiative to control its adverse policy toward China to maintain the momentum in enhanced bilateral ties

“听完盛老师的高效示范课,感受很多,学生们展示出的精神面貌及学习的积极性、主动性让我大为惊讶,很值得我学习。”七师高级中学教师何友林说。

where Keis the back electromotive coefficient of the motor,and x is the rotary velocity of the motor.

This will not be realized quickly, however; long-term negotiations and consultations among the four parties will be required. It needs the ruling bloc to make compromises or even concessions on certain policies to win support. Moreover, the Abe administration may even reshuffl e its cabinet to include members of other parties to buy their approval for the constitutional reform.

Abe's constitutional revision could lead the way for Japan to move toward strengthening its armaments supply and establishing a national defense army, which may be followed by a pursuit of military power. This could also mean that in the future, Japan will attempt to get more involved in Asia-Pacifi c and international military affairs.

柴油机第三次故障在2017年9月。柴油机更换了一至六缸的缸套、连杆及活塞配件,出厂10天后,在一次爬200m陡山坡运行过程中,柴油机又出现了异响,排气管产生大量浓烟并伴有缸内大量窜气现象。对柴油机解体后发现:第二缸出现了严重的熔顶,第一及第三缸出现严重拉缸。经过认真检测,没有发现缺水情况,各缸的机油冷却喷嘴及喷油嘴经检测均正常。针对这种情况,对产生活塞拉缸及熔顶原因必须作进一步的分析。

For now, the LDP and its political partners hold over two thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of the Diet, that can pave the way for proposing the revision to the constitution. But the real problem lies in the lack of such a majority in the upper house.

Negative influence

Japan's revision of its constitution will produce a negative global influence. Since World War II, Japan has focused on economic growth and has won worldwide approval by observing its pacifi st constitution.

In addition to a two-thirds majority in both houses, a majority in a public referendum is also required to make revisions to the Japanese Constitution, according to current law. Japanese people have the final say on this issue and for now, the ratio of those against the revision is still higher than 51 percent. The ruling bloc and other minor parties have to win more approval from the public through propaganda or other measures, which won't be easy.

This prospect has changed Asian countries' perception of Japan. Instead of provoking forgiveness of Japan's crimes during WWII, Japan's revision of its constitution will make the continent more alert and suspicious of Japan's policies and value orientation.

这当然不是说小编不喜欢长篇小说,比如……李亮的大作《墓法墓天》,小编从天涯社区开始追起,追了好几年,追得这篇文的名字都改两回了,才终于等到了结局,而且奇迹般地记住了每个关键的剧情(包括修改后作废的剧情),没有出现“看到后面忘了开头”的尴尬局面。

The LDP could possibly lure other small parties to its camp, like the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), which won 21 seats. Currently, the DPP does not support the administration's constitutional revision, but the party is divided. A considerable number of its members agree with the LDP and Komeito, however, some forces are against the revision, and their opposition poses a huge obstacle to a union with the ruling bloc. Nevertheless, the party may be persuaded to change its stance and support the constitutional revision. If it does, along with the support of the Japan Restoration Party, which won 13 seats, the revision forces will have a supermajority in the House of Councilors and can comfortably propose the revision.

近年来随着诊疗技术的不断发展,越来越多的子宫畸形被确诊,不同类型的子宫畸形对生育力及妊娠结局的影响不同,在临床工作上制定有效的、个体化治疗方案十分必要;宫腔镜手术已成为子宫畸形手术治疗的新选择,与腹腔镜手术及超声监测的联合使用,更有助于优化手术效果,改善生殖预后。未来,还应加强子宫畸形矫治术后的管理,严密随访患者,监测孕期情况,必要时给予适当的干预,以取得更好的妊娠结局。

Future policy

To win public support for his constitutional move, Abe may adjust parts of his domestic and foreign policies during his term.

It is very possible that it will follow the U.S. military closer and use its military power imprudently. If this is the case, Japan will become another unstable factor that could disturb the Asia-Pacifi c region and the entire world. Along with the U.S. military, Japan's Self-Defense Forces could also show up in areas haunted by confl ict and turbulence.

In the domestic arena, Abenomics will be further pursued, with the pace for raising the consumption tax and implementing it in October rushed, even though the disapproval rating for this issue is still higher than 55 percent. Meanwhile, Abe will promote free education from kindergarten to university, which will win support from a considerable number of people. The prime minister will also gradually raise pensions and salaries, which are critical to him and his ruling bloc to maintain a high approval rating.

In foreign policy, the Abe administration will continue to consolidate its close alliance with the U.S. And in order to reach a bilateral free trade deal with the U.S., Japan is likely to make substantial concessions and basically satisfy all U.S. demands in trade negotiations. However, the Japanese ruling class has found it hard to predict U.S. policy under President Donald Trump's fl ipfl ops, which have actually started to alienate the traditional ally. That may prompt the Abe administration to implement a more independent policy to reduce its reliance on the U.S., especially in military and defense areas. Japan may take a more autonomous military stance and increase defense against the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Russia and China.

The administration may stop investing energy in improving bilateral ties with Russia since its neighbor has made it clear that it will not return two islands off Hokkaido to Japan, refusing to even negotiate on the issue. Russia's stance means that Abe's arduous diplomatic efforts to regain Southern Kuriles from Russia over the past few years have failed. Since Abe seemingly lost enthusiasm and passion, there will be no breakthroughs in Japan-Russia ties in the short or medium term.

As for its relations with the Republic of Korea (ROK), tensions are still high, with no signs of a thaw. Japan may tighten sanctions against the ROK and bilateral ties may continue to slide.

The Abe administration will make more efforts to improve ties with China to pave the way for Chinese President Xi Jinping's planned visit next spring. But this overture does not mean Japan will ease its containment and vigilance against China. Japan will continue to adopt a preventive policy toward China, make military preparations and try to contain China in the East China Sea and South China Sea, and this may all be done under different pretexts.

However, Japan will take the initiative to control its adverse policy toward China to maintain the momentum in enhanced bilateral ties. Improving ties with China will win points for the Abe administration, thus, it will make the utmost effort to progress in order to get voter approval. But Abe and his administration have long been weary of China's system and future development; therefore, it will be diffi cult to restore bilateral ties wholeheartedly on Japan's part.

The ruling coalition's failure to win a supermajority in the upper house of parliament shows resistance to constitutional revision By Zhou Yongsheng

Copyedited by Rebeca Toledo

Comments to yulintao@bjreview.com

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Zhou Yongsheng:ThwartedAmbition论文
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